Оцінка вразливості туристичних дестинацій Тернопільщини до кліматичних змін та антропогенного навантаження

Abstract

У статті здійснено комплексну оцінку вразливості туристичних дестинацій Тернопільської області до кліматичних змін та антропогенного навантаження. Виявлено ключові чинники ризику для основних туристичних кластерів регіону, запропоновано індикатори моніторингу та рекомендації щодо адаптивного управління туристично-рекреаційною сферою.

The article presents a comprehensive geographic analysis of the vulnerability of tourist destinations in Ternopil region (Ternopilshchyna) to climate change and anthropogenic pressure. Tourism in Ternopil region relies heavily on a diverse natural and cultural heritage base, including karst landscapes, river valleys, historical castles, national nature parks, and health resorts. However, accelerating environmental transformations — both from global climatic processes and from intensifying human activity — pose growing threats to the sustainability of these destinations. The urgency of the problem is heightened by the fact that the region's most attractive natural sites are simultaneously the most ecologically fragile ones, and their degradation cannot be reversed on a short planning horizon. The study employs an integrated approach combining landscape-ecological assessment and tourism flow analysis. Vulnerability is understood as the degree to which a tourist destination system is susceptible to adverse effects arising from climate variability and anthropogenic pressure, taking into account its exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This three-component framework, grounded in the IPCC conceptual model, was adapted for the conditions of the Podillian region of Ukraine. A composite vulnerability index was calculated for each of five identified tourism clusters, with partial indices normalized by the min-max method and weighted on the basis of expert assessments. The climatic dimension of vulnerability encompasses changes in precipitation patterns, increased frequency of extreme weather events (droughts, floods, ice storms), seasonal shifts in tourist demand, and degradation of water resources that serve as the primary recreational base for many destinations. The Seret, Zbruch, and Nichlava rivers, as well as karst springs and lakes of the region, demonstrate measurable signs of hydrological stress associated with irregular precipitation and rising summer temperatures. The average annual temperature in the region has increased by approximately 1.2 1.5°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline, with the most pronounced warming occurring in winter and spring. The anthropogenic dimension covers recreational overload of protected natural areas, unregulated development of tourist infrastructure in ecologically sensitive zones, pollution of surface waters and soils in areas of concentrated tourist flows, and forest degradation exacerbated by warming trends. Special attention is given to the karst territories of Podillya — caves such as Mlynky and Verteba — where visitor pressure without adequate management results in microclimatic disruption and geological instability. The problem of unregulated motor vehicle access to natural recreation zones is also examined in detail. A spatial vulnerability matrix was constructed for the main tourism clusters of Ternopil region: Kremenetsko-Dubenska, Pochaivska, Zbarazko-Ternopilska, Chortkivska, and Husiatynska. Each cluster was assessed by a composite index comprising indicators of natural fragility, tourist intensity, infrastructure capacity, and institutional readiness. The Zbarazko-Ternopilska cluster (index 3.9) and the Chortkivska cluster (index 3.6) demonstrate the highest composite vulnerability, driven respectively by hydrological degradation of the Ternopil reservoir and the critical anthropogenic pressure on speleological destinations. The study concludes with a set of recommendations for adaptive management of tourist destinations, including the introduction of scientifically grounded carrying capacity norms for natural sites, development of climate-resilient tourist routes, ecological monitoring networks along river recreational zones, and integration of climate risk indicators into regional tourism development planning. The findings contribute to the geography of sustainable tourism and provide practical tools for regional authorities and tourism operators in Ternopil region.