Регіональні відмінності у формуванні міграційних потоків в Африці: соціально-економічні детермінанти

Abstract

Стаття присвячена комплексному аналізу формування міграційних потоків на Африканському континенті з урахуванням соціально-економічної, демографічної та інституційної специфіки регіонів. У роботі розкрито вплив територіальної нерівності розвитку, диспропорцій у структурі зайнятості, урбанізаційної динаміки та кліматичних ризиків на інтенсивність і напрями мобільності населення. Акцентовано на ролі регіональних економічних співтовариств у регулюванні внутрішньоконтинентальних переміщень та зниженні вразливості до нерегулярної міграції. Показано, що демографічний тиск, політична нестабільність і деградація природних ресурсів перетворюють міграцію з реакції на кризу у структурний чинник розвитку, що потребує комплексних політик зайнятості та просторової інтеграції.

The obtained scientific results indicate that the regional differentiation of migration flows is determined by the territorial asymmetry of socio-economic development, where disparities in income, employment, and urbanization generate “centers of attraction” in West, South, and North Africa, thereby stimulating predominantly intra-continental labor mobility. The second key finding highlights the influence of the institutional architecture of regional economic communities (ECOWAS, SADC, COMESA, IGAD), which correlates with a higher frequency of regular flows and reduced vulnerability to transit risks, while political instability and conflicts catalyze irregular movements. The third result confirms that demographic pressure from young cohorts, combined with climate threats, transforms migration from a reactive response to crisis into a systemic factor of regional integration. The practical value of the research lies in substantiating strategies for reducing migration imbalances through accelerating productive employment, enhancing climate resilience, and strengthening mobility regimes, which facilitates the adjustment of employment and spatial development policies. It also provides an evidence-based foundation for international cooperation aimed at legalizing mobility channels and protecting migrants, integrating migration policy with the economic initiatives of the African Union. It was determined that the regional differentiation of migration processes on the African continent is determined primarily by the territorial asymmetry of socio-economic development, in which the disparity in income levels, labor productivity, sectoral employment structure and the dynamics of urbanization processes generates stable "centers of gravity" in the industrially and infrastructurally modernized areas of West, South and North Africa. At the same time, intracontinental, mainly labor mobility, which is implemented in seasonal and circular forms, prevails, and its intensification is additionally stimulated by the demographic pressure of young age groups, the increase in the cost of living and the degradation of the climate resilience of agricultural ecosystems. An effective strategy for reducing imbalances in migration flows within the continent should be based on the synergy of three mutually reinforcing vectors: accelerating the creation of productive employment through regional production value chains and investments in second-tier urban agglomerations; increasing the climate resilience of rural economies (irrigation systems, energy availability, land resource protection) in order to minimize “forced” mobility; institutional strengthening of mobility regimes (legal channels of labor migration, protection of rights, portability of social guarantees and improved data systems). It is substantiated that the implementation of these vectors in combination reduces regional asymmetries, transforms circular movements into manageable formats and converts migration from a reactive response to the crisis into a tool for long-term socio-economic development. Future research prospects include empirical modeling of the impact of regional investments on migration trajectories using panel data, which will enable forecasting migration dynamics up to 2050. In addition, it is advisable to study gender and age aspects of mobility in the context of labor market digitalization to develop inclusive integration strategies.