Перспективи післявоєнного розвитку сегменту зарубіжних активних подорожей в контексті попереднього кризового досвіду

Abstract

Проаналізовано особливості впливу мотиваційних, географічних та економічних факторів на процес формування сегменту зарубіжних активних подорожей в Україні. Охарактеризовано процес географічної та цінової сегментації активних турів у період формування ринку пропозицій. Проаналізовано тенденції змін географічних та цінових показників ринку зарубіжних активних подорожей у кризові періоди України. Визначено перспективи розвитку сегменту зарубіжних активних подорожей після закінчення війни у середньостроковій перспективі.

The current pace of recovery of the global tourism industry after the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates that the segment of active travel (“Adventure Travel” in the international classification) is the most resilient and adaptive to crises and has shown the most sustainable growth in recent decades (up to 17%). Thus, the segment of adventure tourism (more than 26% of all trips in the world) remains a true locomotive for the development of global tourism. In Ukraine, the development of this area has experienced fluctuations related to crises of various scales: from the global financial crisis of 2008, the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the ATO (Anti-Terrorist Operation) in Donbas to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020-2021 and the full-scale military aggression of the Russian Federation in Ukraine in 2022. All these shocks and subsequent changes in the mass character, geography, and structure of the active foreign travel segment revealed certain trends. Analysis of these trends can help determine the prospects for the development of this segment in the post-war period. The main purpose of the research is to study the development prospects of the foreign active travel segment in Ukraine in the post-war period. The article shows the background and describes the process of formation of this segment of travel in the period from the 1990s to the early 2000s. The features of the influence of motivational, geographical, and economic factors on the process of its formation in Ukraine are analyzed. It is shown that at this stage, the expansion of the geography of travel was initiated by amateur hikes, the main form of commercial tours was of a hiking type, and the budget segment prevailed in the price gradation of commercial tours. Since the mid-2000s, the popularity of hiking in foreign countries has sharply increased among Ukrainian tourists. The geography of hiking, climbing, river rafting, and trekking tours has grown to dozens of countries in a few years. The growing number and variety of trips abroad and the steady mass demand for commercial, sports, and amateur foreign active trips in the 2010s led to the formation of a new segment of active foreign travel for Ukraine. Unmet growth in demand in the period up to 2014 led to progress and expansion of the range of activities of regional tour operators in all price categories of travel. The budget and middle segment prevailed in the price gradation of commercial tours during this period. The article shows the process of formation of geographic and price segmentation of active tours in the market of proposals. The tendencies of changes in the structure of geographical and price indicators of the market during the crisis periods in Ukraine are analyzed. Based on the example of the main operators in this market segment, the trends in the price structure of demand, mechanisms for adaptation, and recovery of the market during the 2014 crisis are analyzed. The prospects for the development of the foreign active travel development segment after the end of the war in the medium term are shown. In particular, there will be a replacement of tours of the budget and partially middle price segments with domestic tours in regions not contaminated with explosive objects, namely in the Carpathians and Podilia. The number of amateur trips abroad will grow, and geography will continue to expand. At the same time, due to the rise in the price of air transportation, the cost of trips can increase by 1.5 times. Perhaps some of the regular customers of commercial tours who are accustomed to hiking conditions will participate in these trips. Active travel in the high and partially mid-price segments will remain in demand, as they will remain accessible to the target audience of this category of active travelers, but they will still not be widespread.