Порівняльний аналіз динаміки кліматичних змін у Черемському ПЗ та Шацькому НПП

Abstract

У статті здійснено порівняльний аналіз динаміки змін клімату протягом 2014 – 2023 рр. та їх потенційного впливу на біорізноманіття у найбільших заповідних об’єктах Волинської області – Черемському природному заповіднику (далі – Черемському ПЗ) та Шацькому національному природному парку (далі – Шацькому НПП). За результатами статистично-графічного аналізу архівних кліматичних показників 10 – річного періоду метеостанції Світязь (розташованої в межах Шацького НПП) та метеостанції Маневичі (розташованої поблизу Черемського ПЗ) було описано зміни, яких зазнали середні, мінімальні та максимальні показники температури повітря, відносної вологості, атмосферного тиску, вітру, хмарності, опадів, сніговий покрив, а також метеорологічні явища (частота випадання дощів та снігу, появи туманів, заметілей, гроз та ін.). Оцінено потенційний вплив змін клімату на елементи ландшафтних комплексів зони Полісся.

Introduction. Setting objectives. The article provides a comparative analysis of the regional manifestations of climate change between 2014 and 2023, as well as their potential impact on landscape complexes of nature conservation areas of the Volyn region: the Cheremsky Nature Reserve and the Shatsky National Park. The results of a statistical and graphical analysis of 10 years of climatic indicator data from the weather stations closest to the Cheremsky Nature Reserve (Manevychi) and the Shatsky National Park (Svityaz) are presented. These results describe the changes experienced by the average, minimum and maximum air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, cloud cover, precipitation and snow cover, as well as meteorological phenomena such as the frequency of rain and snow, fog, blizzards and thunderstorms. This study focuses on the climate of two significant nature conservation areas in the Volyn region: the Cheremsky Nature Reserve and the Shatsky National Nature Park. The subject of the study is an assessment and visualisation of regional manifestations of climate change over the past 10 years (2014–2023) and their potential impact on the biodiversity of the Shatsky NNP and the Cheremsky NR. Purpose of the article. The purpose of the scientific research is to analyze and compare the dynamics of climatic indicators in the Cheremsky NR and Shatsky NNP during 2014-2023, regional manifestations of climate change and their potential impact on landscape complexes, and visualization of the results obtained. Results of the research: As a result of the analysis of the dynamics of climatic indicators in the territory of the Cheremsky NR and Shatsky NNP, it was found that regional manifestations of climate change are clearly expressed in both objects, but they are more pronounced in the Shatsky NNP. According to the data of the station Svityaz, temperature indicators are higher and the dynamics of other meteorological parameters and phenomena are more intense. In both objects, an increase of 15-25% of the climatic norm of average annual, monthly, minimum and maximum temperatures is observed. Absolute maxima during the study period reached and exceeded the absolute maximum of the climatic norm. There is a decrease in the average annual and average monthly indicators of relative air humidity by 5-10%. A slight increase in the average annual precipitation with a general high variability of this indicator is noted. The dynamics of a number of meteorological phenomena have changed: a reduction in the number of days with precipitation, especially with snow, a decrease in the height and duration of snow cover, a reduction in the number of days with blizzards (up to their complete absence in some years), and a fairly significant increase in the number of thunderstorms (by 30–40%). The potential impact of climate change on biodiversity is assessed by groups of rare flora and fauna species. Two developed electronic applications are presented in the form of interactive maps showing climate change in the two nature conservation sites. The main positive and negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity for the two objects studied in the nature reserve were identified. The most threatening of these is the potential shallowing and overgrowth of the Cheremsky wetland complex. This threat will become a reality if the trend of increasing evaporation rates and decreasing moisture levels continues. These processes may also continue to cause the shallowing of Lake Svityaz and other lakes in the Shatsky National Park, a phenomenon which was already observed in 2019–2020. Degradation, reduction or even disappearance could endanger many populations of rare species. The scientific novelty: Comparison of the dynamics of regional manifestations of climate change in the Cheremsky Nature Reserve and in the Shatsky National Park was carried out for the first time and can serve as the beginning of a larger-scale scientific study of the impact of climate change on the natural complexes of the protected areas of Polissya and the development of ways and methods of adaptation to them. Practical significance: The obtained research results and developed interactive maps can be used by employees of environmental protection institutions for scientific, educational and ecological-educational activities. The results can also be implemented in the educational process. It is planned to continue the research with the expansion of the analysis to other national parks of the region, with the aim of a comprehensive assessment of climate change.