Ретроспективний географічний аналіз лісогосподарського землекористування Кременецького району Тернопільської області

Abstract

У статті розглянуто ретроспективно-географічні особливості використання лісових угідь у Кременецькому районі (Тернопільська область) шляхом розгляду природних передумов (ландшафтна структура Кременецьких гір), історичних трансформацій землекористування та сучасних інституційних змін в управлінні лісами. Обґрунтовано методологічну схему моніторингу динаміки лісового покриву шляхом інтеграції офіційної статистики з продуктами дистанційного зондування. Запропонована розробка може застосовуватися до аналізу ретроспективних траєкторій використання лісових угідь.

The scientific article provides a comprehensive retrospective geographical analysis of forestry land use within the Kremenetsk district of the Ternopil region, Ukraine. The study is necessitated by the region's status as a low-forest area, where the current forest cover of 14.7% falls significantly below the scientifically justified regional target of 20%. This research addresses the dual challenge of environmental sensitivity specifically the highly dissected relief of the Kremenets Mountains prone to erosion and the complex institutional transformations within the Ukrainian forestry sector. The primary objective of the publication is to investigate the spatio-temporal features of forest land use and to establish a scientifically grounded methodology for monitoring these changes. To achieve this, the author integrates traditional official statistical data, such as the 2024 Ecological Passport of the Ternopil Region, with advanced remote sensing products. Specifically, the methodology utilizes the Landsat-based global forest change mapping and the Hansen Global Forest Change dataset available via Google Earth Engine. This hybrid approach allows for the reconstruction of forest cover dynamics at a 30-meter resolution, providing a reliable baseline for identifying «hotspots» of forest loss or recovery. The analysis reveals a fragmented and multi-regime management structure in the district. Key stakeholders identified include the «Kremenetske Forest Management» branch of the State Enterprise «Forests of Ukraine» (53.019 thousand ha), the municipal enterprise «Kremlis» (6.336 thousand ha), and the «Kremenetski Gory» National Nature Park (3.916 thousand ha). The study emphasizes that forests in this region perform vital protective, water-regulatory, and recreational functions rather than purely exploitative ones, given the steep slopes and plateau landscapes. A significant portion of the article is dedicated to a three-stage algorithm for integrating GIS analysis with official indicators to develop predictive models up to 2035. These scenarios Inertial, Normative, and Adaptive-are aligned with the State Strategy for Forest Management of Ukraine until 2035. The research highlights practical reforestation efforts, noting that in 2024, the Kremenets forest economy restored 135.3 hectares, primarily through the creation of forest cultures. The author concludes that integrating satellite-based monitoring with institutional verification is essential for effective spatial planning. The proposed methodological framework serves as a tool for sustainable development, ensuring that regional standards for optimal forest cover are met to stabilize agricultural landscapes against climate change and erosion. This study contributes to the geographical understanding of land-use trajectories and provides a scalable model for retrospective monitoring in other ecologically sensitive regions.